“The Russians no longer have any reserves worth mentioning and are not capable of launching a large scale offensive. In forming any appreciation of enemy intentions, this basic fact must be taken fully into consideration.” (Colonel-General Kurt Zeitzler, Chief of the German General Staff)
By Pablo Villegas N, 7.10.22
When Russia announced the recruitment of 300 thousand men, an impressive interest to find out everything about the matter arose among those whom I will simply call analysts.
The frame of reference is the Ukrainian Kherson offensive launched last month, which according to the analysts was a success due to one or all of the following alternatives:
On the Ukrainians side, they attacked the Russians in their weakest point, their troops were trained to NATO standard; on the Russians side, they made mistakes, their frontline was guarded by insufficient troops; they became lax after having it easy killing enemies in a ratio of 1-10; their military leaders are too old, they don't like to use computers, etc. (Please don't be shy adding more nonsense).
Whatever it was, there is consensus among analysts that Russians did not fight, they withdrew in an orderly fashion, relinquishing territory. Meanwhile their artillery and air force pounded the enemy inflicting large losses, about which there is also consensus. That's why I find it interesting that they consider that the Ukrainians succeeded. Since the goal of war is to destroy the forces of the enemy, it would be easy to see who is destroying who.
The next step of this tour is that the Russians went on to consolidate the territory they had already occupied, being the referendum part of it. But wait a moment, isn't that what victorious armies do? Yes, it is, nonetheless the victorious army could not prevent the defeated from behaving so badly because of some military genius that sent them to the north, while the real battles were being fought in the south. Actually after reaping several victories they tried to move south, but the trains were out of order because the invaders cut the electricity. Analysts said it was revenge.
Now to the point, the recruiting of 300 thousand men.
Analysts have been insisting that the number of Russian troops was insufficient for the task. Accordingly, their most pressing concern has been when these troops will be sent to the front to move on to another scale of war. Apparently they think Russians forgot the calculation of combat-ready reserve troops in their war plans. If true, Ukrainians should seize this opportunity to deal a final blow to the Russians. I mean now, while they are training their new recruits.
- one of the purposes of this 300.000-man mobilization was to free up Russian (min. 15:49) combat power (…) have the Russian army brought together the total capabilities of the Russian military when confronting the Ukrainians and if not can we expect in the future the Russian military to start fighting the way that it is supposedly organized trained and equipped to do so?
As you can see, these 300 thousand are fully tied to the assumption that Russian forces reached their limit and that it is necessary for them to move to another scale of war involving “the total capabilities of the Russian military”.
The answer (literally transcribed):
As you can see, these recruits are going to deal with matters typical of an army at war. Regarding the insufficiency of manpower in the army he adds:“it is not on the mobilization the purpose to free up those forces which are on the border line (min. 16:32) the first and foremost task is to provide an additional army personnel and to provide combat efficiency and the second part is to have reserved divisions (which…) will not only secure the border but will be ready to perform their duties in the whole area of Ukraine; (He concludes with a very eloquent expression) we should forget about that.”
They have all the resources to accomplish the task which is:“… we are capable of getting the (min. 16:56) Strategic operations to kill the critical infrastructure in Ukraine and within two or three weeks it is going to be collapsed. In Ukraine they will stay without anything, without power, without water, (…) and it's going to change the whole nature of these special military operations; and to do that we have all the resources.”
Now, on the alleged need to scale up the war, I wonder what's wrong with the size of the military special operation?“the destruction of the Ukrainian (army) (min. 21:23). And the outcome (of the war) should be when the Russian army is going to be on the Romanian borders, Hungarian borders… And only after that we can safely say that demilitarization has been performed”
This small Russian force is tremendously cheap and effective not only in combat; but it perfectly synchronizes the situation on the battlefield with the deterioration of the economy and the political situation of the so called “unfriendly countries” and with the winter. So don't expect them to correct what is going well.
The quote with which I started this article, concludes as follows:
“Despite these predictions, on 19 November Soviet forces launched an offensive (…) and inflicted the most disastrous defeat on German forces since the creation of the Wehrmacht.” (pg 117 Soviet Military Deception in the Second World War)
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29.9.2022 S. Ritter & Andrey Gurulyo. Brink of nuclear war, New phase in Ukraine conflict, How will Russia defend liberated regions. Streamed live on Sep 29, 2022 https://youtu.be/OM7Q5ybutB0